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The Border Watch : November 5th 2013
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SPORT NEWS TIPS sport@tbw.com.au BONUS $100 COLD HARD CASH WHEN YOU CONNECT ANY HANDSET TO ANY OPTUS PLAN OVER 24 MONTHS Terms and conditions apply. Available to approved customers only. See in store for details. MELBOURNE CUP 35 Mount Gambier Your Premium Optus Dealer Ph (08) 8724 6800 The secret to fi nding a Cup winner FIRST: Will Fiorente live up to favouritism status in today’s Melbourne Cup. MORRIS ROD rod.morris@tbw.com.au GETTING Melbourne Cup tips is a great way to give yourself every chance of picking the winner. Historically it has always been a particularly diffi cult race to pick the winner as there are many unknowns about each horse combined with a mammoth 24 horse fi eld. You could go with the colours or your favourite number but you are only relying on luck. There are some interesting statistics about past Melbourne Cup betting which can help when choosing who to place your money on. In the past 151 years, just 21pc of favourites have ended up saluting for punters. SECOND: Hawkspur ticks all the boxes to run a place in the 2013 Melbourne Cup. The last favourite to win the Cup was in 2005 when Makybe Diva won for the third year in a row. But in the last 30 years only two horses have won paying more than $25. So that narrows the fi eld down. These sort of statistics can be used in your own Melbourne Cup tips strategy. The international runners are proven to run well in the Cup of late as overseas trainers are beginning to target their horses for this great race. THIRD: Seville is our selection to run third in the Melbourne Cup. No. Last 10 starts Horse Melbourne Cup fi elds Trainer Jockey 1–105x4322x8 DUNADEN (FR) 2–171x44x599 GREEN MOON (IRE) 3–81x2389624 RED CADEAUX (GB) 4–115x8x0021 SEA MOON (GB) Mikel Delzangles Jamie Spencer Robert Hickmott Brett Prebble Ed Dunlop Gerald Mosse Robert Hickmott 5–417238x115 BROWN PANTHER (GB) Tom Dascombe 6–x42x3x6143 FIORENTE (IRE) 7–1522x81024 FORETELLER (GB) 8–2127x221x2 DANDINO (GB) 9–640x0x5004 ETHIOPIA 10–112x3x7531 FAWKNER 11–4x8841x787 MOURAYAN (IRE) 12–x052x00917 SEVILLE (GER) 13– x311x34935 SUPER COOL 14–73948x0320 MASKED MARVEL (GB) 15–1x50x1582x MOUNT ATHOS (IRE) 16–x1220x1122 ROYAL EMPIRE (IRE) 17–41x1x21321 18–6111x71457 HAWKSPUR 19–5x45x42x23 SIMENON (IRE) 20–1x59451801 IBICENCO (GER) 21–144x32511x VEREMA (FR) 22–2167x73832 DEAR DEMI 23–1x6513211x TRES BLUE (IRE) 24–1x39433321 RUSCELLO (IRE) Gai Waterhouse Chris Waller Marco Botti Pat Carey Robert Hickmott Robert Hickmott Steven Arnold Richard Kingscote Damien Oliver Craig Newitt Ryan Moore Rhys McLeod Nicholas Hall Brenton Avdulla Robert Hickmott Hugh Bowman Mark Kavanagh Robert Hickmott Luca Cumani Corey Brown Michael Rodd Craig Williams Saeed Bin Suroor Kerrin McEvoy VOLEUSE DE COEURS (IRE) Michael Moroney James McDonald Chris Waller Jim Cassidy William Mullins Peter G Moody Richard Hughes Luke Nolen Alain de Royer Dupre Christophe Lemaire Clarry Conners Gai Waterhouse Ed Walker Chris Munce Tommy Berry Handicap Barrier Weight rating Market 1 58.5kg 118 $41 10 57.5kg 116 $41 23 56.5kg 114 $67 7 56.5kg 114 $16 6 55kg 5 55kg 15 55kg 112 $21 113 $7 112 $34 4 54.5kg 112 $13 14 54.5kg 109 $81 8 54.5kg 112 $19 19 54.5kg 110 $151 9 54.5kg 110 $15 13 54.5kg 113 $51 2 54kg 22 54kg 11 54kg 21 54kg The run will be all important and many horses will be hampered by other runners in the race. Nothing is a certainty in the Melbourne Cup. It is also worth noting that since 1924 when barriers came in, no horse has ever won from barrier 18. There are many statistics like this which arguably come down to chance and do not have a bearing on the 2013 Melbourne Cup. The statistics and form used for selecting a winner is progressively becoming more confusing as more overseas Melbourne Cup horses get thrown into the mix. The Melbourne Cup is one of the most diffi cult races to predict the outcome. There are a number of factors which contribute to this including unknown internationals runners, the large fi eld, the 3200m and the fact that many trainers attempt to peak their horses form on the fi rst Tuesday of Novemeber. 108 $26 109 $10 109 $19 113 $19 18 53.5kg 110 $13 12 53.5kg 107 $17 17 53kg 3 53kg 16 51kg 20 51kg Chad Schofi eld (a) 24 50kg 107 $67 110 $13 108 $21 110 $17 103 $51 Lets have a look at some statistics before we develop a betting strategy. Some more interesting statistics when working out your Melbourne Cup tips include the weight the horse will carry. In the last 30 years 86pc of winning horses have carried weights of less than 56kg and in the past decade, the average winning weight has been 54kg. The age of the horse is also important. Only four horses in the past 30 years have been an age of over sixyears-old. Also for the internationals in the past 15 years entering the event no import has won the race without a lead up race in Australia. So now that we have the Melbourne Cup winning strategy, lets see which horses fall into this group in the current list of 2013 Melbourne Cup nominations. The strategy leaves us with the 2013 Melbourne Cup tips being Fiorente, Hawkspur and Seville. Tale of the 2013 Melbourne Cup In far off Ethiopia under a Green Moon, the famed Red Cadeaux and Ruscello, well known as the Masked Marvel and the Super Cool Brown Panther respectively were on their way to Mount Athos in the Royal Empire seeking a Tres Blue with the Voleuse De Coeurs. The Foreteller trio of Dandino, Ibicenco and Verema were guided by the Sea Moon gods, Mourayan, Seville and Simenon in predicting the pending fate of the famed travellers. Fawkner and Hawkspur were high on the list as Dunaden and Fiorente penned letters to the waiting target of their dreams, Dear Demi. Melbourne Cup selections Rod Morris 1–Fiorente 2–Hawkspur 3–Seville David Gilbert 1–Mount Athos 2–Green Moon 3–Fawkner Stan Brooker 1–Super Cool 2–Sea Moon 3–Dunaden Kyra Sykes 1–Green Moon 2–Dear Demi 3–Simenon Trevor Jackson 1–Fawkner 2–Verema 3–Royal Empire The Border Watch, Tuesday, November 5, 2013 - 35 627149
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